Have Duds Become More Common?

[noblesteed]

Dud frequency appears to be on the rise and many returning players have suggested duds are increasing.
I decided to try and answer the question of whether there are more duds or people have bad memories.

There have been no tag changes according to HMP, so if there are more duds it is due to a bug in the code, not a change.

I decided to test this with dwarves on Willow Creek Timid. I tested 1.6 and 1.83 with 300 throws each in the exact same location.

In aggregate, on 1.6 I threw 30 duds and on 1.83 I threw 39 duds.

Below is a screenshot of number of duds per set of 10:

It appears that in 1.83 we do throw more duds but the results are somewhat inconclusive. This could have just been a bad run on 1.83. However, I'm not throwing another fucking dud and I forgot to save both videos.

As someone who has been playing myth for 20 years I am almost pretty sure duds are more common now than in the older patches.

[wwo]

This research is more reliable than anything from the WHO. gj.

[BIG KROK V8 SS]

Duds seem to happen more to people in 3rd world countries, like adren.

[par73]

Have Duds Become More Common?

It wouldn't be the first time people are making claims about the differences from old patches to the 1.8 batch o' patches.

If the next question is when have duds become more common, I'd say... 2013.


this is me encouraging my opponent to rush me uphill in 2013



http://www.gateofstorms.net/games/58/ < - - - Game Link

This gameplay is 1.8.0 Beta 442
Had a few duds in this game but they weren't full duds...
there's also some other weird stuff going on... check it out and you'll see



This leads to the BIG CHAZ sponsored BIG questions,

• What is a dud defined by the Ghengis-Khan experiment?
• Did Ghengis all throws with a bounce, igniting or not?
• Do duds only refer to a "blank" shot or only to a "bounce" shot?
• Should we not differentiate between them and a "basic" shot?
• How do differences in environment (terrain type, bottle impact angle, weather) impact duds?
• wtf is in the game code that has your dwarf drop ignited satchel?
• Will Ghengis clarify any of this?
  One may be surprised at what we find.

I look forward to attempted replications of ghengiskhan's experiment. He's already done quite a bit of work here running 600 throws across two patches. With a few others willing to participate, we could get a substancial amount of data to disect the dwarves in a ghôlish fashion. Maybe some myth technicians could take a look and report some facts about the rng system on M2.



A difference of .10 and .13 may seem insignificant, but I'm not actually convinced it lacks significance at all. It's safe to say GK's may be far more dynamic than the one his brother graciously drops every MWC season. Since we've been great at increasing frequency, maybe he can do another one of those this year while we enjoy the 2 week break as quarantine recommendations lift and we all prepare for the next time we are once again told to stay inside.

Dud frequency appears to be on the rise and many returning players have suggested duds are increasing.
I decided to try and answer the question of whether there are more duds or people have bad memories.

Bad recall
Awesome memories