I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Dantski
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I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby Dantski » 07 Oct 2013, 22:35

Going to look at each round of picks and see who came out on top in each round. I'll also throw in captains even though they weren't drafted. I'll include the team captains first letter in brackets next to the player.

Also I'll include a number in brackets after their name to show the pick rating in relation to the pick order for that round. Example if I rate someone as 2nd best pick and they were picked 4th they will have (+2). If someone is picked 1st in the round and I picked them as the weakest in that round they will get (-3). Basically a positive means I think the captain picked well and a negative is me disagreeing with their pick priority. A zero is my conclusion that they were picked at the right time considering the other players in that round, not however considering the other players in previous or later rounds.

The captains

1. Asmo
2. Ratking
3. THOR
4. Paris

Honestly captain positions could be swapped up any which way you like. Most people will trashtalk THOR all day but he's not scared to do something unorthodox and he still catches people unaware when he juggers a flank. The negative against him is solid scouting should spoil his element of surprise. I put Asmo on top since he won the most recent draft and showed better captaining than he did IMO than in previous tourneys, he also cares! Rat won the first draft and is perhaps the most experienced team leader/captain here so I'd expect him to have a solid plan if not unit distribution each week.

The first picks

1. East wind (+1t)
2. Sam (-1r)
3. Tirri (0p)
4. Myrk (0a)

I put EW above Sam because I feel he's a better all round player who can handle just about any role. In terms of trowing I think I'd give Sam the edge. Tirri is down at 3 because he hasn't played enough in years and will have to play on 300ms hosts all tourney. Myrks at 4 not because he's bad but the others can generally carry a team harder than him. Also Myrk is probably not the trower for his team and the rest are.

The number 2's

1. Adren (0a)
2. Cruniac (0p)
3. Dantski (+1r)
4. PK (-1t)

Uh-oh the group I'm in. Asmo managed to grab Adren at 5 and his trower. Paris got a 2nd or possibly primary trower in Crun, while myself and PK will likely take on other roles. In sheer myth ability Adren comes out as the best in this round, however if his attendance is patchy then Cruniac was perhaps the wiser choice. I think THOR's pick of PK in this round was a mistake as there were still some better players available IMO.

3rd mans the charm

1. Arzenic (+2p)
2. Captain (-1r)
3. Chron (+1a)
4. Shadow (-2t)

But wait you might say, isn't Arzenic going to absent the first 2 weeks? How can you still put him first? Well because he's clearly the best player in this round. Also plans can change, if Arz ends up being able to show every week, Paris got an amazing deal. If the rest of his team can avoid going 0-2 in his absence, Par's team is in a strong position. The only debate in this round was captain or chron, chron couldn't even be bothered to sign up last tourney and I'm not sure if he's active so I put captain ahead.

#4 or the middle man

1. Browning (0a)
2. Slate (0p)
3. Zak (0t)
4. Pallidice (0r)

Browning is the best one here assuming he turns up. Slate is less likely to cause a team implosion or drop than Zak.

Fifth base

1. wwo (0r)
2. killerking (0t)
3. funky (0p)
4. punkuser (0a)

wwo should've been picked earlier, maybe even in the 3rd round. Like Arzenic he was a steal to get this late. I don't really know the strength of KK or funky and you could swap them around I guess.

Sixth or last pick

1. Arsenal (+1p)
2. Xmas (+2r)
3. Mark (-2a)
4. Prometheus (-1t)

Hold up! If Mark actually shows up regularly and gives a shit he is 2-3 rounds too late being picked. However he probably won't show up to a single game unless his team harasses the hell out of him. As for the others, Arsenal was looking to captain and that shows he's committed to this tourney, back in the day he was better than Xmas so he gets the nod. Prometheus is a player known to me by his frequent joining of tournament games and being booted because he's not in them. Expect him to show up one week, declare the tourney "gay" and then never be seen again.

Wight patrol

1. SamtheButcher (+1t)
2. Empty (+1p)
3. Codex (-2r)
4. N/A (no players left)

Sam shouldn't have made it into the last round of picks, I'd have picked him a round or 2 earlier so THOR got a good deal there. Empty despite being the greatest myther ever, hasn't won any tourneys recently so is below him. Codex looked like your standard new player when leading the Blades in MWC so I hope he's taken some time to sharpen up his game!

So finally going to end with giving 1-4 pts for each round based on my pick rating and total it all up for each team. This does not necessarily represent my views on team rankings just the pick rankings for each round combined. Obviously captains and the final round are excluded.

1. Par 18pts
2. Rat 16 pts
3. Asmo 14 pts
4. THOR 12 pts

Let the butthurt begin!

edit - including the plus and minuses of my assessment, remember positive suggests good picks, negative suggests weaker ones

Par picks +4
Rat picks -1
Asmo picks -1
THOR picks -2

Essentially I think paris did the best job of all captains from his position of 3rd in the draft, with rat and asmo next. THOR's picks were questionable at times but he did secure EW and some other good pickups like STB.

Asmodian
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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby Asmodian » 07 Oct 2013, 23:13

I don't agree with many of the rankings per round, but it was an interesting read.

punkUser
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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby punkUser » 08 Oct 2013, 00:10

I think you need to make it clear which order the teams picked in as well (and if it differed for each round). For instance, it's not exactly surprising if the captain with the first pick for each round took the higher ranked players...

Otherwise was an interesting read :)

par73
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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby par73 » 08 Oct 2013, 00:31

I think every captain had a respectable perspective to approach the draft from.


However I think your perspective on Chron is mostly wrong.

Also PunkUser, I agree that would be nice additional analysis; I think dantski saved himself from scrutiny by calling it a minor draft analysis though.

Dantski
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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby Dantski » 08 Oct 2013, 00:39

PunkUser wrote:I think you need to make it clear which order the teams picked in as well (and if it differed for each round). For instance, it's not exactly surprising if the captain with the first pick for each round took the higher ranked players...


Didn't quite do that, did add extra points to signify my opinion on personal rating vs draft order.

par wrote:Also PunkUser, I agree that would be nice additional analysis; I think dantski saved himself from scrutiny by calling it a minor draft analysis though.


Harhar too late!

par wrote:I think every captain had a respectable perspective to approach the draft from.


However I think your perspective on Chron is mostly wrong.


Sure, I think THOR wanted to draft based on current activity than reputation.

My perspective on Chron may very well be wrong, I haven't played a game outside of tourneys for months so I don't have much clue who is active or not (I thought Gekko was but he's not in this tourney). Either way I quite enjoy doing this kind of thing and thought some people might like some forum content.

par73
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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby par73 » 08 Oct 2013, 00:42

yea I thought this was really well thought out and organized very well.

I also like the different systems you used to help further your analysis.


I notice in rounds 4 and 5 you had more trouble differentiating what was a good pick (for the time) and what wasn't.
I would have thought that this would more likely happen in the final rounds, 6 and 7.

Is this because the system you used (+1, -1, etc): implies those chosen were your personal best picks to draft at the time?
Or am I wrong in understanding that aspect?

Ratking
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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby Ratking » 08 Oct 2013, 01:01

Cool analysis Dant. Interesting forum content is hard to come by these days, +1

drunken_deer
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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby drunken_deer » 08 Oct 2013, 03:15

a nice little assessment though as expected bagrada is placed well above average. If anything wwo or killer-king are far superior players. good job none the less.

Myrk
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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby Myrk » 08 Oct 2013, 03:55

They haven't outcarried me the last few tournaments my teams have won, also I have a 100% win rate with trow this year :)

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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby Professional Killer » 08 Oct 2013, 05:17

Dantski wrote:The number 2's

1. Adren (0a)
2. Cruniac (0p)
3. Dantski (+1r)
4. PK (-1t)

Uh-oh the group I'm in. Asmo managed to grab Adren at 5 and his trower. Paris got a 2nd or possibly primary trower in Crun, while myself and PK will likely take on other roles. In sheer myth ability Adren comes out as the best in this round, however if his attendance is patchy then Cruniac was perhaps the wiser choice. I think THOR's pick of PK in this round was a mistake as there were still some better players available IMO.


IMO you rating yourself over me as a pick at all are just as funny as finding out your girlfriend got fucked by the entire football team.
Also if we are making comparisons I would fuck you up every match we would play, and I dont see what would make you a "better pick" then me. Im a fucking bc machine compared to you.

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Zak
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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby Zak » 08 Oct 2013, 05:25

dantski furious that thor snubbed him for PK

tirri
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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby tirri » 08 Oct 2013, 05:57

here is some critique regarding sam's placement in the draft and dantskis and ratkings analysis and TAs

here are sams stats from the last 2 finals

smosmo's draft tournament:

samuel 2 / 0 / 4 40 45 0.889 138 238 0.580
sam's comment: i dont see how there was anything i could have done

mwc finals
samuel 2 / 0 / 5 51 72 0.708 224 374 0.599

basically sam got sub 0.6 damage ratios in both finals getting prime powerhitter units every game


now people, im not blaming or flaming sam in any way. basically what im saying is that its very easy to look like a superb heavy hitter when you have an overall better team and you can just sit back and enjoy when the whole team keeps slowly killing the opponent while you have the best units to rack up damage. people have started to disrespect my heavy hitting skills because of some finals appearances where i supposedly havent done a great job powerhittering. but the reality is that the final matches have always had a way more prepared opponent and every time i try to play patiently, the opponent just slowly chisels away my teams percentages. then if i decide to try something drastic and happen to lose my fg or something while actually trying to win the game, a lot of the rubes will start hollering something like "OH LOOKIE THERE, THERE GOES TIRRI AGAIN LOSING HIS TEAM THE TOURNEY"

well the bottom line is im still the best heavy hitter there is and when people decide to bring up some not so stellar finals performances, i will kindly ask them to observe sams latest final stats


thank you all

Asmodian
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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby Asmodian » 08 Oct 2013, 06:18

I will release a new version of Asmodian's Perfecting Ratings after the tournament to resolve all the disputes, but until then I must hold off to keep the peace in the myth 2 community during this time.

par73
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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby par73 » 08 Oct 2013, 06:41

More like Asmodian's Perspective Blows and Dantski Should Make More Threads

Asmodian
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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby Asmodian » 08 Oct 2013, 06:53

Dantski wrote:The captains

1. Asmo
2. Ratking
3. THOR
4. Paris


^^^ I must admit that Dantski got something right :mrgreen:

I do not blame Dantski for underrating the tournament champions though, he had to do something to try and bring interest to the forums before reality kicks in week one.

Dantski
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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby Dantski » 08 Oct 2013, 12:14

I'm not underrating your team at all. This is not a team rating list in terms of strength but how I perceive each captain performed in the draft in their relative position and whether I think some people were picked earlier or later than expected.

PK wrote:IMO you rating yourself over me as a pick at all are just as funny as finding out your girlfriend got fucked by the entire football team.
Also if we are making comparisons I would fuck you up every match we would play, and I dont see what would make you a "better pick" then me. Im a fucking bc machine compared to you.


lol nerd

adrenaline
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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby adrenaline » 08 Oct 2013, 14:09

why is my attendance still in question? i was drafted low last tourney because of my "spotty attendance"... yet was at every match. The matches I've missed in MWC have been a result of vacations, that are booked well ahead of time + opponents' unwillingness to reschedule. I've always been a very dedicated teammate on any team I've been on.

A big HAHA to any captain that was dumb enough not to take me first round and a big CONGRATS to asmo for getting me in the snake... he just bought himself another tourney win.

par73
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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby par73 » 08 Oct 2013, 19:20

Dantski wrote:The captains

1. Asmo
2. Ratking
3. THOR
4. Paris



Dantski wrote:I'm not underrating your team at all. This is not a team rating list in terms of strength but how I perceive each captain performed in the draft in their relative position and whether I think some people were picked earlier or later than expected.


Ok so you think I performed worst in the draft, relative to my 3rd draft pick position, despite the fact you said I had performed best in the draft.

Dantski wrote:1. Par 18pts
2. Rat 16 pts
3. Asmo 14 pts
4. THOR 12 pts


Dantski wrote:Essentially I think paris did the best job of all captains from his position of 3rd in the draft, with rat and asmo next.


Elfoiding logic, you have there

Dantski
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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby Dantski » 09 Oct 2013, 00:06

Like the actual picks I rated the captains initially by ability at first and rated them by how well they drafted at the end.

So to avoid further confusion, I wrote that in my opinion you are the weakest captain in the draft, however in my opinion you drafted better than the others.

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Zak
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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby Zak » 09 Oct 2013, 00:13

the negative 3 points given to thor were in rounds he had to choose last, which doesn't make very much sense.

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Zak
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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby Zak » 09 Oct 2013, 00:33

Dantski wrote:#4 or the middle man

1. Browning (0a)
2. Slate (0p)
3. Zak (0t)
4. Pallidice (0r)

Browning is the best one here assuming he turns up. Slate is less likely to cause a team implosion or drop than Zak.


Not going to argue that I'm a better pick than any of these guys, but Slate showed up to 1 out of 4 matches last tournament, and browning didn't show up at all. I also haven't caused a team implosion yet, and I don't drop from games until the outcome is decided.

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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby Ratking » 09 Oct 2013, 01:25

I love the "yeah I dunt kurr" when losses rack up and the "Yes I do kurrrrr" when skills are in question!

I think we should discuss care factor further

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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby par73 » 09 Oct 2013, 01:55

Clearly the #4 picks for each team will become known as the "swing" picks

Dantski
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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby Dantski » 09 Oct 2013, 11:36

Zak wrote:the negative 3 points given to thor were in rounds he had to choose last, which doesn't make very much sense


Thor didn't have to choose last in any round, he picked 2nd or 3rd in every round.

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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby empy » 09 Oct 2013, 11:51

How was I picked last, im the best myther of this generation :(

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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby Dantski » 09 Oct 2013, 16:18

I know I know, they're all holding you back!

par73
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Re: I'm bored, minor draft analyis

Postby par73 » 09 Oct 2013, 18:01

Don't worry empy, I would have picked you first over the other picks in the final round!

Time to show em they missed out on a great pick up !


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