ER Predictions

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par73
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ER Predictions

Postby par73 » 02 Apr 2013, 07:57

1. GKG vs 8.Asmo

Team GKG
9 wins, 4 losses, 2 ties. 2 match wins, 1 match loss.
Stars:
GKG 9
Adren 9
myrk 8
Role Players:
Evil Jake 6
dac 5
pallidice 5
punkuser 3
classic 3


Team Asmo
4 wins, 9 losses, 2 ties. 1 match win, 2 match losses.
Stars:
Asmo 7
Gekko 9
PK 8
Role Players:
Enculator 5
Renwood 6
Killery 6
Bunny 5
Bali slp 3

This is probably the least interesting match of the week. I don't really see an upset going down here, Asmo foolishly traded myrk for PK and gekko has been seen nowhere. However, GKG's vocalized displeasure with gekkos play and his move to trade PK for myrk might cause Asmo's other stars to show up with a vengence. This is likely not the case.

Deciding Factor:
Stars

GKG's stars simply overpower Asmo's team, they could probably beat them 3v7. If team Asmo could even win one or two games against team GKG they could see it as a victory (just not enough of a victory to move onto the next round). Asmo's team might have more consistently 'better' role players on his team, but both teams role players will be less of an important factor in this match up.
5-0 GKG over Asmo
Image
The Poles voted Nazi before they were invaded by Germany, and Asmo (7) has subbed for GKG's team the past few weeks [illegally for Evil Jake (6)].



2. Zak vs 7. Paris
Team Zak:
Zak: 9 wins, 5 losses, 1 tie. 3 match wins, 0 match losses
Zak 7
Tirri 9
Homer 7
Role Players:
wwo 6
Drunken 6
Bagrada 6
Sasper 5
Vantobia 4


Team Paris:
5 wins, 9 losses, 1 tie. 1 match win, 2 match losses.
Stars:
Par 9
Arz 9
Crem 7
Kilg 8
Role Players:
Kush 6
Dom 5
Spoon 6
TSguns 4

This match could potentially be the biggest (and probably the only possible) upset match of the weekend. Zak's team went through the QR's without losing a match, but ended up losing to team GKG in seeding. Team Paris has an abundance of overrated role players who haven't lived up to their numbers worth but could provide Team Par with some better play or reasonable substitutes to fill in Gaps. Zak worked on two of the maps also for ER, which tilts the sides into his favor. However, Team Paris essentially has 4 stars to 4 role players with his late pick of kilgrath in the draft, and Team's Zak's role players consist of deer's best; therefore this may lead to a close match. One could argue that wwo is on the 'star' level of cremisi, but they would most likely get smited after watching wwo's latest late night 2 team performance. One could probably try to argue that for drunken too, and again, that person would most likely eat their own shit.

Deciding Factor:
Role Players.

I'm not going to get into too much here, but will "Deer" perform as better role players than Paris' squad of relatively unknown and less desired role players? Will Paris even be able to utilize his role players into roles they will be able to comfortably support their star players with? If the deciding factor in this matchup is the Stars I think the match would tilt more into Team Paris', however since I believe it will be based on the role players I'd like to once again bring up the "Random Players vs Random Deer Players" argument. Don't get me wrong, Zak has 'home map' advantage, one of the GOAT mythers and one of the best MWC role players a myther could ask for; and I never win a tournament I participate in, but I know how this one feels to me...
3-2 Paris over Zak
Image
Somewhere, recently in the real world, #15 Florida Gulf Coast upset the #2 Seed, Georgetown.



3. Ratking vs 6. Dantski
Team Ratking
9 wins, 5 losses, 1 tie. 2 match wins, 1 match loss
Stars:
Rat 8
EW 9
Flat 7
Rawr 7
Role Players:
Thor 6
Funky 4
Switch 4
Sight 4


Team Dantski
6 wins, 7 losses, 2 ties. 1 match win, 2 match losses.
Stars:
Dantski 8
Shaister 8
Brown 8
Role Players:
Honkey 7*
Master Chief 5
Milkman 6
Cookie 5
Alfi 3

Ratking's team did arguably as good as Team Zak and Team GKG during the QR's and are the draft tournament's defending champions, and dantski's team did abysmally after imploding during QR1. Dantski's replacement for crun, shaister, has made no matches. This gives dantski a good opportunity to pick up a reasonable sub at power rank 8 to help this his team out. Dantski's roleplayers are also better than Ratking's role players essentially rawr should be considered as a role player and there should be only 3 stars per team, but i broke the system for my team and it's reasonable to do it here. I also think the upset is less likely in this match than the 2v7, but more likely than the 1v8, yet I think dantski's care level is at a fair all time low even though he is teamed up with a cool bunch of players.
The deciding factor:
The Role Players

This will come down to Dantski's team either being able to match up with RK's team's stars successfully, and the collective play of his roleplayers pushing them over the top, or a match that will most likely rather be forgotten by the players of Team Dantski. Either that or Flatline, Rawr and THOR will collectively fuck everything up for team Ratking in at least 3/5 games, and Dantski will walk away with a victory and move onto round two.
4-1 Ratking over Dantski
* Honkey could have been considered a star, but cremisi said he would boycott playing for my team if I made such accusations.
Image
Honkey was recently spotted arguing that Kirk should be able to sub for his team, with or without an account.



4. Ghengis vs 5. Limp
Team Ghengis
7 wins, 7 losses, 1 tie. 1 match win, 1 match loss, 1 match tie.
Stars:
Ghengis 9
CW 9
Demo 7
Slate 7
Role Players:
Father Xmas 5
SamtheButcher 5
Shef 4
Stick 3


Team Limp
6 wins, 7 losses, 2 ties. 1 match win, 1 match loss, 1 match tie
Stars:
Limp 8
Sam 8
Rabican 8
Role Players:
Falcon 6
Valentine 6
Arsenal 6
Scratch 5
Hunterlord 4

This is the most interesting match up of the week! If I could sub in the tournament, this is the match I would sub for. Sadly, I would only be allowed to sub for Ghengis' team, as per rules, but I'm thinking this will be the best match in the round unless there are any upsets. Both of these teams feature an NC and an NP power hitter, in ghengis/limp and cw/rab respectively. Sam has also been really active lately, but Ghengis had two very nice solid pick ups (with the #1 pick in draft order) with slate and demo. Chickenwire has not showed up for a single match for team Ghengis, but this leaves Ghengis with the deadly option to pick up a power rank 9 substitute player.

The deciding factor:
The Stars

Above I listed Slate and Demo as stars, but will they show up with stardom this weekend or play as role players instead? Limps role players are arguably better than Ghengis', but Slate and Demo would probably be considered role players on most people's opinions and, again, makes this match even more balanced. I think this will come down to the stars because a) Who will play for chickenwire since Ghengis deliberately picked CW even though they have beef, knowing he wouldn't play with him, b) Two of limp's maps are featured this week and he probably has more experience on them than Ghengis c) Ghengis is fresh off a 1v1 tournament victory. Limp thinks the deciding factor is the Ghengis vs Sam match up, in which case...
3-2 Ghengis over Limp
Image
I'm not sure if this is Ghengis vs Sam, or Ghengis vs Limp. Maybe it's actually Limp vs Sam...

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Zak
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Re: ER Predictions

Postby Zak » 02 Apr 2013, 10:45

par73 wrote: One could argue that wwo is on the 'star' level of cremisi, but they would most likely get smited after watching wwo's latest late night 2 team performance.


Strange thing happened on lichen between your team and dantski's.

It looked suspiciously like wwo out-warr packed cremisi.

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby tirri » 02 Apr 2013, 11:19

zaks team has been criminally underrated this whole tourney. we have arguably two of the most influential players from last draft tourneys winning team (me and drunken). then we got homer who has won a ridiculous amount of tourneys lately an is basically a less funny, shorter and uglier mini version of his little brother ghengis. and then theres wwo who will meta kill you + some other players i dont even know but they are still great

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby c⁄J⁄Iılk c⁄J⁄Iån ◊§t◊ » 02 Apr 2013, 11:50

par73 wrote:and Asmo (7) has subbed for GKG's team the past few weeks [illegally for Evil Jake (6)].


Paris why is it that you are unable to remember your own ratings?

par73 wrote:renwood 6
THOR 6
evil jake 6
killery 6
pogue 6
asmo 6
milkman 6
wwo 6
valentine 6
arsenal 6
falcon 6
bagrada 6
Kush 6
spoon 6


Sticky your damn ratings you putz!

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby Asmodian » 02 Apr 2013, 17:13

That list that Milkman posted also has Renwood and Killery as 6's, but you listed both of them as 5 here.

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby punkUser » 02 Apr 2013, 17:13

Milk Man wrote:Paris why is it that you are unable to remember your own ratings?
Sticky your damn ratings you putz!

^ this.

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby par73 » 02 Apr 2013, 17:59

Milk Man wrote:
par73 wrote:and Asmo (7) has subbed for GKG's team the past few weeks [illegally for Evil Jake (6)].


Paris why is it that you are unable to remember your own ratings?

par73 wrote:renwood 6
THOR 6
evil jake 6
killery 6
pogue 6
asmo 6
milkman 6
wwo 6
valentine 6
arsenal 6
falcon 6
bagrada 6
Kush 6
spoon 6


Sticky your damn ratings you putz!

asmo went +1 to 7 as a captain.

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby punkUser » 02 Apr 2013, 19:10

par73 wrote:asmo went +1 to 7 as a captain.

Where was this stated and how does it make any sense for sub purposes?

Either way we need a definitive list somewhere, stickied and kept up to date. I realize the lack of edit functionality on this forum (sigh), but at least we can just make a list and repost the whole thing as a reply whenever it changes. That said, it shouldn't really change from here on, so why not just post and sticky the definite ratings?

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby par73 » 02 Apr 2013, 19:43

punkUser wrote:
par73 wrote:asmo went +1 to 7 as a captain.

Where was this stated and how does it make any sense for sub purposes?

If a captain doesn't show up the team can get a better sub for their captain.
This was stated during the draft itself.

punkUser wrote:Either way we need a definitive list somewhere, stickied and kept up to date. I realize the lack of edit functionality on this forum (sigh), but at least we can just make a list and repost the whole thing as a reply whenever it changes. That said, it shouldn't really change from here on, so why not just post and sticky the definite ratings?


This is the definitive list, there is no reason to keep it up to date as there haven't been any changes, I have just recently gotten the edit and sticky/announcement feature made available to me so I've been using it.

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby wwo » 02 Apr 2013, 22:55

So the +1 is only considered if the player is actually subbing in as a captain. If Asmo's just filling in but not captaining, the +1 wouldn't apply. Otherwise you'd have to give anyone who is even considered a marginal captain another +1.

If theories were rafts, yours would be on the ocean floor.

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby dac » 02 Apr 2013, 23:10

wwo wrote:If theories were rafts, yours would be on the ocean floor.


and wood floats. i'm not even disagreeing with you wwo.

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby par73 » 02 Apr 2013, 23:14

zak would have been worth a 6
hes a 7
asmo would have been worth a 6
hes a 7

i think asmo and zak are arguably 7s now on my personal scale anyway.

the +1 was considered in case any team was without their captain for a week so they wouldn't be left completely in the dust. this also looked to kinda blockade captains for playing for other teams but that ended up happening regardless.
I'm pretty sure i did the same to limp, dantski, ratking, etc till the captains were fairly balanced and better captains were separated by worse captains, at maximum, with a +/-2 margin

blah blah; wwo if you want that theory to stand then me ghengis and gkg are 10s and you're a idiot so eat shit and drown
(actually I was a 8 +1 on my scale, but you're still a shitbag)

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby dac » 02 Apr 2013, 23:34

you should ask ghengis and gkg if they think you are in their club of being a 10.

go ahead, it will make for awesome theater!

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby par73 » 03 Apr 2013, 00:06

they are just numbers you butthurt bottom dweller

apparently you missed the part where no one in this tournament has been rated a 10, and the part where i said i was a humble 8 and went to 9 because of etc.

sometimes i feel like i shouldn't have to explain this to such a highly intelligent and overweight creature such as dac but then I realize I may be conceptualizing him inappropriately

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby dac » 03 Apr 2013, 00:23

butthurt? by what exactly?

burnout insults, keep em comin man.

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby par73 » 03 Apr 2013, 02:01

you're butt hurt you live a miserable life; your presence is a stench even to your own self; your birth certificate is actually an apology from the condom factory

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby wwo » 03 Apr 2013, 04:10

Name calling? You're not making this fun to continue.

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby dac » 03 Apr 2013, 04:30

the self medicating makes lots of sense now with all this projecting going on. good job paris.

keep up the good work and maybe gkg will be wrong about you losing your fourth ball.

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby c⁄J⁄Iılk c⁄J⁄Iån ◊§t◊ » 03 Apr 2013, 04:39

par73 wrote:your birth certificate is actually an apology from the condom factory


lulz

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby shadow » 03 Apr 2013, 07:03

dac wrote:the self medicating makes lots of sense now with all this projecting going on. good job paris.

keep up the good work and maybe gkg will be wrong about you losing your fourth ball.


holy shit dac

Check your pants after that one
Must be browned

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby Asmodian » 03 Apr 2013, 08:54

par73 wrote:
Milk Man wrote:
par73 wrote:and Asmo (7) has subbed for GKG's team the past few weeks [illegally for Evil Jake (6)].


Paris why is it that you are unable to remember your own ratings?

par73 wrote:renwood 6
THOR 6
evil jake 6
killery 6
pogue 6
asmo 6
milkman 6
wwo 6
valentine 6
arsenal 6
falcon 6
bagrada 6
Kush 6
spoon 6


Sticky your damn ratings you putz!

asmo went +1 to 7 as a captain.


Funny how out of all those 6's listed there Zak isn't listed because you put him as a 7, which would translate to 7+1 =8 ...you totally made up this +1 thing but this much is expected from a Paris run tournament.

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby drunken_deer » 03 Apr 2013, 13:21

par73 wrote:zak would have been worth a 6
hes a 7
asmo would have been worth a 6
hes a 7

i think asmo and zak are arguably 7s now on my personal scale anyway.

the +1 was considered in case any team was without their captain for a week so they wouldn't be left completely in the dust. this also looked to kinda blockade captains for playing for other teams but that ended up happening regardless.
I'm pretty sure i did the same to limp, dantski, ratking, etc till the captains were fairly balanced and better captains were separated by worse captains, at maximum, with a +/-2 margin

blah blah; wwo if you want that theory to stand then me ghengis and gkg are 10s and you're a idiot so eat shit and drown
(actually I was a 8 +1 on my scale, but you're still a shitbag)


Love the Post +1 Kudos but reallly about Ratings These players are questionable above me and I am rated a 5... Not saying they are worse players but cmon Renwood a 6, Cruniac a 8 the guy who cant even use thrall properly. Oh and lets mention Killery mr AFK and Myrk the dude who's team we beat last round. To be honest not even sure if Rabican has played games with me and yet this dude yet he is highly revered. Chickenwire nowhere to be seen as well.

Just saying you should really reshuffle these stats around every so often.

rabican 8
myrk 8
cruniac 8
demolition 7
slate 7
renwood 6
THOR 6
evil jake 6
killery 6-
pogue 6
asmo 6
milkman 6
wwo 6
valentine 6
arsenal 6
falcon 6
spoon 6
cookie 5

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby par73 » 03 Apr 2013, 20:41

Asmo wrote:
par73 wrote:
Milk Man wrote:
par73 wrote:and Asmo (7) has subbed for GKG's team the past few weeks [illegally for Evil Jake (6)].


Paris why is it that you are unable to remember your own ratings?

par73 wrote:renwood 6
THOR 6
evil jake 6
killery 6
pogue 6
asmo 6
milkman 6
wwo 6
valentine 6
arsenal 6
falcon 6
bagrada 6
Kush 6
spoon 6


Sticky your damn ratings you putz!

asmo went +1 to 7 as a captain.


Funny how out of all those 6's listed there Zak isn't listed because you put him as a 7, which would translate to 7+1 =8 ...you totally made up this +1 thing but this much is expected from a Paris run tournament.



Hmm well I am looking back at my rankings and maybe I only did this with RK, and possibly you and zak. I might have valued you and zak less in a 6-point 9 to 3 scale than the 7-point 10 to 3 scale you used in your tournament. Essentially, you guys might have actually been 6's on the original notepad file.

if we take a look at the ratings you used from the last tournament, which i pretty much adopted and might have made +1 or -1 changes to certain players, you and zak haven't really changed (however, if anything, you've gone +1 because the scale of measurement you used was a 7 point instead of a 6 point).

So no, I didn't really 'make up' the +1 thing. It actually affected the rankings in certain ways. I most likely did not do this for every captain however, as I stated as a troll ploy. (biters)

drunken_deer wrote:
Love the Post +1 Kudos but reallly about Ratings These players are questionable above me and I am rated a 5... Not saying they are worse players but cmon Renwood a 6, Cruniac a 8 the guy who cant even use thrall properly. Oh and lets mention Killery mr AFK and Myrk the dude who's team we beat last round. To be honest not even sure if Rabican has played games with me and yet this dude yet he is highly revered. Chickenwire nowhere to be seen as well.

Just saying you should really reshuffle these stats around every so often.

rabican 8
myrk 8
cruniac 8
demolition 7
slate 7
renwood 6
THOR 6
evil jake 6
killery 6-
pogue 6
asmo 6
milkman 6
wwo 6
valentine 6
arsenal 6
falcon 6
spoon 6
cookie 5


Well drunken, the problem with reshuffling these values in the middle of the season is a one I have considered and found the solution to by leaving it alone. In the draft room, captains not only picked their players on how well they knew the player, the skill level of the player, and preferred players, but also for their substitute value. If this value was to change, because a perceived players rating was in error by a -1 to -3 point margin, it would only hurt the team who drafted those players in the first place. These errors in judgement probably correlate that I spent a lot more time playing with better players, and could rank 'better players' more accurately than 'lesser players'. In lay man's terms, I have come to terms with the fact that spoon and kush are probably not 6's.

I color coded those names from the quote how I would change value at the present moment, Green is up and Red is down. No color change indicates I would keep my original assessment. This current value change does not indicate any real changes with the tournament, it is just for fun.

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby sasper » 04 Apr 2013, 00:15

paris you think valentine is playing better than wwo? you need to lay off the retard sandwiches. even after 2 bottles of rum or whiskey or whatever that dirty boozehound drinks its a joke to say 6

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby wwo » 04 Apr 2013, 00:39

I appreciate it if true, but think about it like this. Par based a lot of this on last year's rankings, where I was a 7. To say I've been inactive from then until about a month ago is an understatement, so knocking off 1 point is virtually required. Also, historically I'm 3 balls out of 5, with occassional bumps based on activity, bursts of care, and whether it's as a player or a captain. Scaling up for 10 pts, 6 would be correct; that it coincides with the math of 7+rust is nice, as well.

I'm really bored.

I think some people are also completely missing something very cool: even slightly inaccurate rankings can make a player's value increase or decrease. Cremisi is a good player, but if he's overrated at an 8, is a captain going to draft him alongside more accurately rated 8+'s? Probably not. Conversely, if a player seems to be underrated, it makes his... "playing" value higher accordingly. It's not about getting the rankings exactly correct in all circumstances; the arbitrariness is part of this system's charm.

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby noblesteed » 04 Apr 2013, 01:07

chickenwire and I have beef? wtf?

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby par73 » 04 Apr 2013, 01:44

wwo wrote:I appreciate it if true, but think about it like this. Par based a lot of this on last year's rankings, where I was a 7. To say I've been inactive from then until about a month ago is an understatement, so knocking off 1 point is virtually required. Also, historically I'm 3 balls out of 5, with occassional bumps based on activity, bursts of care, and whether it's as a player or a captain. Scaling up for 10 pts, 6 would be correct; that it coincides with the math of 7+rust is nice, as well.

I'm really bored.

I think some people are also completely missing something very cool: even slightly inaccurate rankings can make a player's value increase or decrease. Cremisi is a good player, but if he's overrated at an 8, is a captain going to draft him alongside more accurately rated 8+'s? Probably not. Conversely, if a player seems to be underrated, it makes his... "playing" value higher accordingly. It's not about getting the rankings exactly correct in all circumstances; the arbitrariness is part of this system's charm.


isn't cremisi ranked at a 7?

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby wwo » 04 Apr 2013, 04:58

par73 wrote:isn't cremisi ranked at a 7?

Dunno. Someone referenced somewhere where I "beat" him, so I put him at 6-7. The point is him at 8 would be overrating him, thus his play value is lessened if you drafted him as an 8.

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby Flatline » 04 Apr 2013, 07:04

drunken_deer wrote:
par73 wrote: To be honest not even sure if Rabican has played games with me and yet this dude yet he is highly revered. Just saying you should really reshuffle these stats around every so often.



Are you saying that you should be rated equal or higher to rabican?
Seriously, just no.
no
no

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby Dantski » 04 Apr 2013, 13:24

I'm sure if rabican was here he'd be the first to say he sucks.

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Re: ER Predictions

Postby par73 » 05 Apr 2013, 00:15

wwo wrote:
par73 wrote:isn't cremisi ranked at a 7?

Dunno. Someone referenced somewhere where I "beat" him, so I put him at 6-7. The point is him at 8 would be overrating him, thus his play value is lessened if you drafted him as an 8.

Yea I agree. I tried to set the system up with as many checks and balances for the most fair play as possible, I'm glad to see at least someone can recognize this.


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