Also, I had made some predictions on what asmo would get, like a week before the match, which I can now share here, and comment on:
Giant Killer General wrote:Predictions for what I think asmo will do:
Mjila: he will get slightly less than max arcs, and will go heavier thrall (very slight variation from what we do)
Lichen: he won’t max souls, may get the 2 spid queens (slight variation from us, unless they get spid queens)
Leagues: he will go archless like us, but maybe less dorfs and more thrall
Raisen: he will go archless and maybe get locks
Twister: he will get fewer ghols than us
I have about a 50% confidence rating on these predictions, so I suspect I will get about 2 or 3 of them correct, and 2 or 3 wrong. In the instances I get them wrong, it is extremely likely that he will get something very very similar to what we get. Overall, I don't suspect his trades will be hugely different from us, but they may be different enough to turn the tides in our favor.
overall I give asmo a C+ in the strat department for this match. It was of a bit lower quality than I was expecting really. I was expecting B or B+ level at least.
game 1 mjila - i expected him to fall into the trap of thinking it is KOTM so he needs to play for contesting time, but i didn't think he would take it to quite such an extreme. only 8 archers. really, the way this is played out is a pretty standard BC fight. I would say I got this prediction correct though overall.
game 2 lichen - i missed this prediction, asmo got pretty much exactly what we got, though warrs insteead of stygs, and a few more ghols than us. he did not heal his wights at the temple like we did, so we had a 4-1 advantage over him in the big pus. they still won this one though via winning FG fight. They were the only other team of all of the matches played on this, that correctly traded for 0 spid queens on this (they are 24 points people, what on earth are you thinking)
game 3 leagues - we didn't actually play this due to a bug of some sort causing OOS, but they traded for 12 archers. Even I did not expect this from asmo, I thought he would have seen how obvious it was to go no archers on this. it is very likely we would have won this had it been played by just spreading them out, ignoring their archers, and pinning them to their flag then running the timer out for guaranteed win-or-tie. I missed this prediction but only because they went completely backwards with their strat.
game 4 raisen - NE start has a massive start advantage in taking the middle courtyard first, with also trees in the way blocking the SW corner of the courtyard as well. I did correctly anticipate asmo not getting archers. at first glance, it seems archers are not useful on this. however they are very important for maintaining control / doing damage on enemy trow.
game 5 - i expected non-max ghols, but I did not anticipate no dorfs from them. their strat was overly simplified, and they didn't even send a mid-tagger ghol which could have potentially denied us the mid-flag tag. very dissapointing on this one.
Overall, I'd say I got about half of my predictions correct, which is about what I predicted I would get anyway. Most of the time when my predictions were wrong, they were wrong because asmo did something more different, instead of more similar. so in that regard, my prediction of thinking he would do something more similar to us when I did guess it wrong, I was incorrect as well.
Lichen and Raisen were their most similar strats to ours, and their least bad strats (this is reflected in their win on one, and closest loss on the other). Mjila, twister, and leagues (though it went unplayed) were their worst strats. Btw no team saw the most-correct strategy of going archless on leagues, of the 3 or so matches played on it.