We are 3 weeks into TWDS17, with about 75% of the games and matches completed.
Before I do my Week 4 Predictions this week, I wanted to spit out some other content about each teams potential chance of making the playoffs following week 3. I also wanted to explore what scenarios would need to happen in order for it to happen. We have not done a group stage with more than 4 teams for over two years, if not longer. I think the last group stage with more 4 teams that we played around with was summer MWC2013, I could be gone. Regardless, returning to this format I look to show it some respect as we explore the potential outcomes of the tournament.
The image above depicts the current standings of the tournament, displaying the total number of wins and matches played during the tournament. Using the data from this table with 3 games in a match, winning %'s for the respective teams look something like this:MiH
72% in 18 games$oMR
55% in 18 gamesSC
67% in 15 gamesSJWS
72% in 12 gamesPG
44% in 18 gamesNT
41% in 12 games(33% in 15 games)AH
33% in 12 gamesTLM
6% in 15 games (8% in 12 games)
for some reason I thought NT had played 5 matches already and NT has 2 matches remaining. Also TLM has only played 12 games as they still have 3 matches remaining to be scheduled. In italics, I've listed the changes if my information is correct and the table is not.
I think the biggest point to note here is how inflated $oMR's victories are in value for progressing from the group stage, and if anything SC should be ranked at 2 if Akira's Standings Graph was meant to be displayed in order descending from top seed to bottom seed. Then again, Akira never posted any information about tiebreakers when advancing from the group stage so we will have to see how he organizes the tournament to proceed. Myrks in Heat have dominated their games and their 72% win rate holds more weight than SJWS; While SJWS shares with MiH the best win rate in the tournament, SJWS has also played the fewest games in the tournament. They are simply sleeping on the threat radar and could easily solidify their position this weekend playing their remaining 3 matches. PG is holding onto their opportunity of a top 4 spot by a hair. Are NT and AH out of the mix? is Trow Lives Matter to far gone?Break Down By TeamMiH
is the only team going into week 4 that has clinched a top 4 group stage spot within the tournament. Even if they lost or threw their final match to NT by losing all 3 of their scheduled games, their performances in weeks 1-3 against other high standing teams have given them a cushion the other participants no longer have any chance of placing their asses upon. We will have to see if they can maintain their dominating ways in the single elimination tournament, as well as the larger team tournament following the end of the first half of TWDS17. You might want to start sending your draft applications to Verminix, RK and LK if you are interested in joining them for the second half of this tournament.$oMR
is a team who could lose their spot on the leader boards if they lose 0-3 to AH, PG goes 3-0 against SC, and SC/SJWS win their remaining matches handily. The margin of win and loss is only 2 games between $oMR and PG, so it will be interesting to see how Akira will handle the situation if $oMR goes 1-2 and PG goes 3-0 in the final week. This team started out with spoon 1v1ing scratch in an epic dead mans chest that came down to a mere 2-3 units; one of the many close games played in this tournament, to showing up full force in week 3. It will be interesting to see what $oMR shows up this weekend.SC
is a team who. just lol. after making up the majority of their matches last weekend, the forces of SlatE, tirri, Flatline and VieforPower have made their performances count on the leaderboard. They shot from last place to tied in second based on total games won at the end of week 3. They are matched up against two of the top teams this weekend, SJWS and PG. If they lost both of these matches in full sweeps, they could be at risk to get knocked out of the top 4. Not getting swept by PG is more crucial to their survival than not getting swept by SJWS, but this team and their attendance is completely unpredictable. SJWS
has such a high winrate, they would have to get swept by PG, and lose their other two remaining matches, one being a sweep as well. This team is very formidable, I predicted this to be one of the dark horses of the tournament but really they have been a super power all along due to circumstance. A lot of players underestimate players like YOLO and Kryptos at their ability to play myth at a high level, especially because YOLO spends most of his pub games playing hyper aggressive rather than conservatively. If they win 8 of their 9 remaining games, they could very well take home the #1 spot in the group stage.PG
is knocking at the door of all of the top teams, but aside from substitute influence can only do their best to smash Stellas Concubine this weekend and see where the chips fall in the remaining games. They could secure a 3rd or 4th place spot if $oMR, MiH are SC gets swept, and SJWS gets knocked around in their other two matches. The likelihood that they get 2nd is even loser but still possible. This is myth's current Pregnant Dark Horse Team. If they want to stay together going into the playoffs and post season the mentioned circumstances will need to fall into their favor. NT
plays against the top ranked and lowest ranked team this weekend. They have had some alright showings but have underperformed in the long run. I suppose this was expected following their risky trades of trading away Lizard King (who has the best statistics in the tournament), as well as tirri who has shown up more than his replacement Lord Scary Owl. One cannot underestimate the company of Phos however, I thought his play against PG proved he can hold his own after becoming reacquainted with myth last year. Trev has been holding down the fort for his Captain Some Loser, but they need their young gun Lord Scary Owl this weekend to snag 6 wins in a full sweep to truly threaten the top ranked teams.AH
is in a very similar scenario to NT. They've been hurt by the absence of their more skilled players in their games, and hang onto a mere thread in order to stay in tact and progress to the SE and big teams TWDS. This is a proton torpedo into the death star and only Luke can use the Force to do it type of scenario when it comes to AH's chances of getting into the top 4. They need to win at least 7 of their remaining 9 games. Myrks need to sweep NT. SJWS needs to lose 8/9 of their remaining games. TLM needs to do well against SJWS, but fall short against AH. It's teams with only 9 games remaining like AH, TLM and SJWS who will have the most impact on the results this weekend.TLM
is in a rough state and are too far behind to come back... or are they? If the data from the table is wrong, and the schedule is correct, and TLM still has 3 games to be played instead of 2, the game changes and I'll tell you why in a bit. They had limited play from Chron and Sin, and EW is AWOL giving his attention to GoS.net forums instead of these ones
. It's unfortunate as the game loving group of Scratch, NewMutator and Sonic have stuck it out, they can still end their tournament on a high note this weekend taking a game or two from SJWS or challenging the battered NT and AH squads.Is there any possible scenario for TLM to qualify for the top 4?
Well, they need to win all 9 of their remaining games. This give them 10 wins. SJWS will need to lose every remaining game, all 9. This means SC will end up with at least 13 wins. Myrks need to make sure NT doesn't catch up. $oMR needs to make sure AH doesn't catch up. Some of the latter scenarios are possible and perhaps TLM is the true Cinderella team of this tournament, but SJWS would have to simply shit the bed on all accounts and this team would definitely need East Wind to go for a 9-0 finish into the playoffs. If you want to do this team a favor and have contact information for Chron and East Wind, help them get in contact their team and opponents.
CINDERELLA LIVES MATTER BROS
And there you have it folks, as it turns out every team participating still holds a chance to qualify for the top 4. While some scenarios are very unlikely, there is still plenty of chances and time for upsets and unforseen results to come piling in, setting the stage for the single elimination between the 4-small teams as well as the future draft and large 4-team tournament.